Pest Management Professional, May 2017

Brought to you By needs increase but technical understanding increases exponentially as these types of accounts may ask for active and or passive surveillance sentinel hosts trapping species identification viral testing larviciding adulticiding and even education to the public In addition PMPs may encounter regulatory considerations as water applications may require a National Pollutant Discharge Elimination System NPDES permit Dr Mustapha Debboun BCE and a military veteran is the director of the Harris County Houston Health Departments Mosquito Vector Control division The department oversees a state of the art mosquito management program complete with surveillance teams mosquito biologists environmentalists geneticists education specialists and all the equipment necessary to manage mosquitoes in a densely populated city like Houston When asked whether it is easy to predict mosquito outbreaks and disease transmission Dr Debbouns answer was a very abrupt no But with help like technologies from Microsofts Project Premonition were getting better he added smiling Editors Note Learn more about Project Premonition at Microsoft com en us research project project premonition As in any good pest management program Dr Debbouns health teams look for conducive conditions in convergence with increased vector numbers They can then take action and be slightly ahead of the disease transmission cycle Predictive Yes but its understood how quickly changing environmental factors such as rain temperature and people can place them on the fences edge between proactive and reactive treatments Its only with diligence hard work and quick thinking they maintain their proactive edge Last it would seem with all our science wed be able to model these outbreaks for a better head start One might look at the species range of Aedes aegypti and A albopictus across North America as a good start but it doesnt take all the factors into consideration Thats where the U S Centers for Disease Control and Preventions CDCs Nowcast infectious disease model program for chikungunya virus comes in Mosquito infectious disease Modeling For many years scientists have attempted to predict surges in mosquito populations with some success At the very least it has added to our understanding of the biology of the various species that cause human suffering Recently the CDC has used infectious disease modeling to help public health experts identify and understand factors that influence when and where outbreaks occur and to what extent they may spread By understanding the nature of the disease and its vector s our control efforts are maximized and therefore theoretically and with all things being equal disease transmission is reduced The CDC developed Nowcast to help scientists estimate the local transmission of chikungunya virus This computer model takes into account many factors such as the biology and range of invasive vectors and travelers going to and coming from infected areas of the world all to reference the most likely geographical areas at risk for new local transmissions of the disease Keep in mind though that this model is designed to measure a continuously moving front of the epidemic rather than to predict spread of the virus into the future according to the CDC Predictions into the future would require a different type of model Its also important to remember the CDC says Nowcast model predictions are based on probability not certainty of an event If youre interested in more detail of the models capabilities and Continued on Page MM10 Ochlerotatus formerly Aedes canadensis also is known as the woodland pool mosquito The encephalitis carrying species is a daytime feeder as seen on the authors hand PhotoS Gene White mypmp net Pest Management Professional May 2017 MM7